“🟩 Iran drought warning, rebels agree to Sudan ceasefire, Trump tariffs threatened || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #45/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Description
Executive summary
Top items:
-
Geopolitics: Iran's President warned that the capital Tehran may need to be evacuated within the next few months if severe water shortages don’t ease. The main rebel group in Sudan agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire, while a UN-backed monitor confirmed that famine is present in the Sudanese town of El Fasher.
-
Tech and AI: Google's Gemini 3 is likely to be widely deployed by the end of the year, and it may be state-of-the-art on some benchmarks.
-
Economy: The US Supreme Court hinted that it would rule against most of Trump's second-term tariffs.
Forecasts:
-
Forecasters estimate that there's a 25% chance (18% to 35%) that any form of ceasefire between Sudan's government and the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will be in place on January 1, 2026.
-
They think there's a 13% chance (6.0% to 25%) that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January.
-
And they believe there's a 71% chance (55% to 90%) that the Supreme Court will rule that Trump's use of a 1977 law to impose the majority of his second term tariffs was [...]
---
Outline:
(00:20 ) Executive summary
(01:45 ) Geopolitics
(01:47 ) Middle East
(06:02 ) Africa
(06:54 ) The Americas
(06:57 ) South America
(08:24 ) United States
(09:18 ) Europe
(09:39 ) Asia
(10:04 ) Technology and artificial intelligence
(12:39 ) Economy
---
First published:
November 10th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-drought-warning-rebels-agree
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
United States
